Ted Olsen's opening statement.

Arguing why Proposition 8 violates the United States Constitution.  Delivered by a staunch conservative; notable in its dispassion.

Regardless of how the district court rules, the result will be appealed to the Ninth Circuit.  They will likely overturn Prop 8, because that’s what they’re like.  Then it goes to the Supreme Court, and that’s when things get interesting, because John Roberts is likely the one swing vote.  And nobody is really sure how that guy feels about gay rights.  On one hand, he’s pretty Republican.  On the other hand, he once did pro bono work for the gay rights group that won Romer v. Evans — which is the most significant gay rights case to make the Supreme Court so far.  But then, back on the first hand, there’s no reason to believe that the firm he worked for when he did this pro bono work would have let him quit the case if he didn’t agree with his clients.

This is how American law works.  It will fall to a single man to determine whether or not millions of people will enjoy this particular right, the right to marry the person they want to marry, regardless of gender.

Of course, the Supreme Court might choose not to grant cert.  But that would be insane, a course only chosen if they want to grant the right nationally but don’t want to appear activist.  Eventually the issue would find its way before the Court again, and by that time there would be thousands of gay couples already celebrating their cotton or leather anniversaries. It’s a lot more difficult to remove a right than not to grant one in the first place, and the Court would kinda sorta have to allow it.

No, the only way this thing ends badly is if they see it all the way through and John Roberts ends up being less enlightened than his Harvard Law contemporaries.